The Hidden Value of Folding

The Hidden Value of Folding

Paul Kammen
Wed, 15 Nov 2006

Folding is your friend. It's how you get yourself in position to make the big plays in poker. Here are numerous instances of times you ought to be folding.

It might seem that you'll make the most money in poker by winning a big pot or getting that big flush draw to hit. While, indeed, winning a big pot or getting lucky on a given hand can be the key factor in a session, the real profits in poker are made when you heed the words of Ben Franklin: A penny saved is a penny earned.

Folding is a fundamental part of the game that is overlooked by many who play an otherwise solid game but don't get ahead because they chase when they shouldn’t, or see far too many flops. Become the guy with the leather backside -- who can sit and wait, as long as it takes, for the right hands -- and you will find your poker sessions to be coming out in the black more and more. You’ll have more chips to fire away with when you’ve got the best hand, and the donkey (rather than you, the shark) at the other end of the table is the one praying to the poker gods for the three-outer on the River. Here are some of the more common situations you’ll run into where folding is the moneysaver, long-term:

Good hands pre-flop do not equal good hands post-flop. Playing hands like big pairs, and Big and Little Slick(Ace-King and Ace-Queen) before the flop are pretty straightforward -- you raise and even re-raise in most spots. Many players are good at doing this. Where they falter is at the flop, especially if it’s been a long night, the chips are down, or they haven’t seen a hand in some time. In holdem, especially at the low stakes, you're usually playing in a fish tank; that is, players abound who love to play any hand that consists of a face card and a suited card; others will play any Ace. You need to discipline yourself to dump a hand that has become a big underdog, unless you have backdoor straight and flush draws.

To illustrate, take pocket Queens. You are in middle position in a $2/$4 holdem game, and raise. There are four callers, and the flop comes K-8-7 with two diamonds. A player bets into you. There is now $18 in the pot. You hold the Queen of diamonds. Here, assuming your opponent has the cowboy, you have 2.5 outs; two Queens, and two running diamonds would give you the second-nut flush (the running diamonds are counted as a half-out because you are not drawing to the nuts.)

The game is loose, and you suspect at least one of the other players behind you will call. The pot is large enough where you can see the Turn for $2 as you are getting 9:1 on your money, and odds are this will increase as the players behind you call. If the Turn brings no help, however, you will need to get away from this hand as the bets will double on the Turn card -- and you don’t want to be chasing two outs into the River.

If no one has yet bet on the flop and the action is to you,

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check; and if other players just call and the Turn brings no diamond, bet. No action on the flop suggests no King is out there, and the larger Turn bet size could enable you to win the pot then and there. (You may want to come out and bet if you think it can win you the pot. The problem with betting, though, is this is a limit game, and your tiny $2 into a pot of over $20 will usually get no one to fold. If you have a tight table image, especially with the pre-flop raise, a bet rather than a check is OK.) If you're looking at two bets to see the Turn card, get away from those ladies. They are no good anymore. Similarly, if you're playing heads-up or the pot is small, again you want to fold.

Folding is also the right move when someone raises you. Note the above situation where you come out and bet. Say a player raising you saw your pre-flop raise, your flop bet, and still raises. You have to put that player on Big Slick, in which case you are far behind and it’s not worth it to try to catch a miracle card on the Turn. You aren’t going to see the River for free, so fold and be done with the hand.

One error many players make is getting stuck on a big pocket pair, and seeing it to the River. A small error is seeing the Turn when the call is marginal; a much bigger error is calling the Turn when you get no help, because you are now looking at calling the River as well, hoping your big pair is good.

When you do not have the added out of the runner-runner straight or flush draw and it’s one bet to you, you should usually fold and be done with the hand, especially if an Ace comes on the flop, or the flop is coordinated (meaning it presents flush and straight possibilities). On uncoordinated flops, you can consider a raise to get information from the bettor and cause other players to fold, as you have position on the bettor; if he bets again on the Turn after your raise, fold, but bet if he checks to you. It’s painful to dump larger pocket pairs, but believe me, it’s profitable, because your session can turn on a dime and you want to keep your chips for when you’ve got the best of it.

If only I had seen the Turn… Another common mistake made by newer players is believing, when they see the Turn would have given them a set, that they shouldn't have folded. Getting one of the two remaining cards in the deck to make your set on the Turn is 22-to-1 against, but that means nothing to a player who is seething inside for laying down tens because he was certain he was behind when the Ace hit on the flop. Come the River, he sees that, yes, his opponent had Big Slick, but still he's thinking: “Wow, what a pot I would have won had I seen the Turn, and he would have paid me off.” Sure he would have, but so what? That doesn’t make your decision to fold incorrect. Stay disciplined and don’t go down the slippery slope of seeing the Turn and River because of (incorrect) hindsight. Remember that poker is a game of math, and while long shots do win at times, what you need to ask yourself is, “Did I play the hand right based on the odds at the time?” That’s what matters. And if you do that, you’ll be a winning player rather than a perpetual “I had him pre-flop, what a donkey that guy is!” complainer.

Bonehead chases. I’ve looked at drawing hands much more in-depth in a previous article, but it’s worth covering again briefly here. Good drawing hands are those where you have a shot at a powerful flush or straight and are getting good pot odds. Poor drawing hands are those where you are heads-up or three-way, and the pot is small. Quality four-flushes (those making a big flush or having overcards for added outs) can usually see the Turn. Straight draws are trickier, especially chasing to the wrong end of the straight or inside-straight. Take the hand of 5-6 offsuit. You're in the Big Blind, three players and you see the flop, which comes 8-9-A. You check; the player under-the-gun quickly bets, getting one caller. The action is back to you. You may be tempted to chase, but don’t! Many players love to play T-J in low-stakes holdem, and you are likely up against a pair of Aces as well. You want to have the high end of the straight draw, because making the wrong end of the straight can be very costly, and inside-straights aren’t worth drawing to unless the pot is very large.

Bottom two pair. Another folding situation is when you flop two pair, but have a smaller pocket pair, especially with medium and smaller pocket pairs. For instance, let's say you hold 4-4 and the flop comes A-A-9. Five players saw the flop. You're in early position; the player under-the-gun bets and the action is to you. Here, fold. Yes, you’ve got two pair, but there is a good chance someone has an Ace, and there are a lot of other possibilities of players holding a larger pocket pair than yours. The Turn is likely to be bad for you as well.

The larger the pair, though, the more leeway you have. Take pocket tens on a flop of J-J-5. Here, rather than fold I would raise the player who bet under-the-gun. This improves your shot of winning right there and is much better than calling. The players holding hands like Q8 suited and A4 offsuit will fold, and it’s now two bets to see the Turn. If the player under-the-gun re-raises you, you now can easily fold as you have all the info you need. The problem with small and middle pairs is that there are just too many cards out there that can beat you on the Turn; the larger the pair, the less likely it is that the Turn will bust you.

Respect the check-raise. A check-raise occurs when a player checks, you bet thinking your hand is good, and then the initial player who checked to you raises. In spots like this, you have to carefully assess the situation, and the glass is often half-empty. On the flop, you can usually call with top pair or better (as it’s just one more bet) and then fold on the Turn if you do not improve and if the check-raiser comes out firing -- unless you pick up a four-flush or four-straight as well. Be especially careful of the Big and Little Blinds using a check-raise, as they could have anything.

You also want to give respect to the check-raiser because you raised before the flop. He is aware of your action and is saying he can beat what you have. Of course, if you feel your hand is best, such as when you hold two pair with no pair on the board, or a set, you can re-raise. You also do not want to fold a big draw that you bet on the come. Hands that you do need to get away from in such spots are: top pair that can only improve to trips, and a possible flush or straight brought by the Turn. The check-raise typically means the player has in fact caught a good hand. Call only when you are on a bigger draw, or you know that the player who check-raised you is extremely aggressive and likes to bluff.

It can’t be emphasized enough how important folding is in these spots. Anger is the typical response from most of us in this situation, especially if you haven’t won a pot in some time. You make a decent hand that looks good, bet; get raised and then feel the need to “show” the other player (or you're convinced your hand will get even better). More often than not, you don't improve, but still call two big bets on the Turn and River, and muck your top pair in disgust to see that the check-raiser made trips on the Turn. (Obviously you can check-raise too when you make a good hand, as most players have a very difficult time folding when they have been check-raised.)

Psych 101. While poker is a game of math, you also need to play the player. Each situation is unique, and as you gain experience at the tables you’ll improve on your ability to read players. Look for tells, like quick bets that indicate strength or a sigh or grimace on the flop indicating weakness, and make your moves accordingly. But you also can’t let misreads get the best of you. If you make a lay-down on the flop only to find you were in front, or got check-raised and were foolish enough to call the player down, deal with it and use what you learned to your advantage on future hands. Play the player, don’t let the player play you.

Folding is the aspect of poker that is the least enjoyable, but most profitable. My friend and colleague Jan Fisher once cited Mike Caro’s statement that if you want to win the most pots, play every hand. You’ll get action, and lots of pots, but you won’t be a winning player. Poker is about selecting hands carefully. Sometimes strong hands turn into trash hands on the flop or turn. Discipline yourself to make good folds, remembering it’s not about how big the pot is that you win, it’s about how big your stack is when you get the rack and head to the cashier’s cage. If it’s action you want, by all means play many hands -- and then hit the craps table on the way out the door. If it’s money you want, stay focused and play the kind of poker you know how to play, which includes recognizing when the cards and the odds just aren’t in your favor.~~