Not only is this likely to result in rushing your own thought process at the very instant your mind is begging you to slow things down and ask for another minute or so, but an opponent’s request to clock you is very likely to get you thinking about a ticking time clock rather than the hand you’re trying to analyze patiently.  And that’s a double whammy.  It can put you on tilt and freeze up your analytical abilities in the process.

We all make mistakes under pressure, and cool thinking when things are heating up all around you is seldom easy.  The ability to think coolly, calmly, and clearly under pressure is one of the hallmarks of really good play.

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As we join Arthur, the blinds are $50-$100.  After running into a set of treys early in the tournament when he held A-K and flopped K-3-5, he is short-stacked with about $8,500.  That’s when this hand developed.

  Reber was dealt a pair of Jacks under the gun.  Although a pair of Jacks is a vulnerable starting hand because it’s about even money that the flop will contain at least one card larger than a Jack, Reber raised, making it $400 to go.  A raise from someone under-the-gun usually indicates a strong starting hand, and all of Arthur’s opponents folded until the action reached the button.  The player on the button, a very strong player, was the table’s chip leader with approximately $25,000 in front of him.  The button called and the player in the big blind, a professional with a super-aggressive style, called too.

  Reber’s initial thought was that the big blind might have called because it was only one additional bet to him and he was getting 5-to-1 odds to see the flop.  He also thought that the player on the button might have called because he had position.  Many good players will call in this situation.  Rather than raise, the caller with position is hoping for a favorable flop that will allow him to break his opponent.

The flop was 3h-3d-7d, and Arthur loved it.  The aggressive professional player in the big blind checked and Reber bet $500.  The button paused to think, but only for a few seconds.  Then he pushed his chips all-in.  The big blind promptly folded, and now it was time for Arthur to think very carefully.

His first thought was directed toward his opponent’s hand.

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Reber’s second thought was whether his opponent had a big pair.  "He cannot have a largish pair," Arthur reasoned.  "If he did, he would have raised before the flop with any pair of 10s, Jacks, Queens, Kings, or Aces to force the big blind to fold, isolate me, and contest the pot heads up."

Arthur’s third thought was all about what his opponent thought he might have.  "He almost certainly has me on A-K or A-Q given the situation and how I’ve been playing and, of course, the simple probabilities of hands."  While his opponent would have to think that Arthur might have big pair instead of A-K or A-Q, it is far more likely that a raise would come from A-K, A-Q or K-Q than pairs of 10s through Aces, given the range of most players’ raising hands.

Reber also thought that his opponent might have A-7 and that if he did "...he would probably slowplay it too."  Here’s where that all-too-rare third-level thinking comes into play.  "If my hand was what I believe he thinks I have, then he’s reckoning that he is a big favorite.  If that’s the case, and an Ace hits he will have top two pair and he’s going to get all my chips."  Reber also thought that the only other hands he would have called with were 8-8, 9-9 or 7-8 suited, but he concluded that 8-8 or 9-9 were unlikely since "he almost certainly would have made a solid raise with these to push the big blind out of the hand, and define his hand against mine more clearly.  Perhaps he even thought he could force me to fold."

Reber’s conclusion was that the only hand his opponent could have was 8-7, and that they were probably both hearts, since that would give his adversary the added equity of a backdoor flush.

  Arthur smiled at his opponent, saying, "I’ve got your suited 8-7 dominated.  I call."

  His opponent visibly twitched when Arthur said that, and said, "Nice call; but you’re off a bit."  He showed 9h-7h.

  It was the perfect read, based on a terrific analysis of betting patterns coupled with the cards that appeared and some knowledge of his opponent’s playing style.  But sometimes all is for nought -- even the best thinking and analysis can be skewered by the capricious turn of a card -- and 10 seconds later Reber was on the rail when another seven fell on the river.