OK,  it’s got a silly name:  a semi-demi-bluff.  Reminds me of a musical term for a 32nd note  --  a semi-demi-quaver.  But I digress.

Let’s go back to basics for a second.  Let’s be clear on three simple concepts in poker.  The first is a value bet:  That’s a bet when you expect to have the better hand,  want a call,  and expect to win because you believe your hand is better than the hand your opponent will call with.  You have a pair of Aces pre-flop? You raise the $5 blind to $20?  That’s a value bet.  If you’re called you expect to win.

Now let’s quickly review what a bluff is.  That’s the opposite of a value bet.  You want to represent a strong hand when you have a weak hand because you’d like your opponent(s) to fold  --  since your hand isn’t likely to win because of its true strength.  You have Qh-Jh on the River in late position and the board is Ks 9h 7h 3d 2d.  Everyone checks to you.  The pot is $100.  You bet $100 with nothing,  hoping that everyone left folds to your bet,  believing that you have a better than than they  --  even though your hand is unlikely to be better than theirs.  That’s a bluff.

Finally,  let’s review what a semi-bluff is.  It’s a bluff with a back-up plan for winning.  If it doesn’t succeed as a bluff,  the hand can still improve to the best hand on the next card.  If,  for example,  you have the Qh-Jh on the Turn and the board is Ks 9h 7h 3d and you bet in late position after your three opponents check,  that’s a semi-bluff.  On the one hand it’s a bluff,  because you’d be very happy if everyone folded to your bet since you don’t really have much of anything. But on the other hand,  if you’re called,  you still might improve to the best hand by catching either a straight or a flush on the River.  It’s more than a bluff,  hence the term semi-bluff.

So what the hell is a semi-demi-bluff?  Simply put,  it’s a bet that may be a value bet.  You may have the best hand at the time you make it,   it may convince your opponent to fold as a bluff,  and it may improve to the best hand on the next card.  Here’s an example of a semi-demi-bluff:

You’re in early position on the Flop.  You have Ah-9h.  You raised pre-flop, hoping to limit the field and maybe win at this table of very tight players.  The Button and the Big Blind called you.  The Flop brought the Kh Jh 9s.

The Big Blind checked.  You bet the size of the pot.  That would be a semi-demi-bluff.  You figure there’s some chance that you have the best hand with your pair of 9s and with the Big Blind not betting  --  which means,  you think,  that he’s unlikely to have a King or Jack.  You don’t know what the Button has but you also figure that with your bottom pair you may be ahead of him.  But even if you’re not ahead,  you figure that your pot-size bet might convince an opponent with a pair of Kings with a weak kicker or a pair of Jacks to fold,  assuming you hold a higher hand.  In that sense the bet is a bluff,  since you are deliberately betting with the hope of convincing your opponents that your hand is stronger than it really is so they’ll fold.  And finally,  your hand may improve on the Turn or River if you catch another heart,  making it a semi-bluff.  Add up all of these three possibilities and you have a semi-demi-bluff.

Should you make this bet?  You can look at it as an addition problem and decide for yourself.  Ask yourself three separate questions and add together the probabilities of each answer.

The first consideration is whether you are likely to have the best hand.  Each situation is different,  but in the above example,  perhaps you figure that you have about a 30% chance of actually having the best hand.  That alone wouldn’t warrant a bet under most circumstances.  But you have two other possible ways to win.

The second consideration is the likelihood that your hand will succeed as a bluff.  Against two opponents in the above situation perhaps you gauge your chances to be relatively slim  --  maybe only 10%.  As just a pure bluff,  if that’s all your bet had going for it,  it probably wouldn’t be worth it in this situation.  Still, when added to the possibility that you actually have the best hand it increases the possibility for a positive outcome to 40%.

Finally,  consider the possibility that your hand will improve to a Flush.  35% of the time or so your 4-Flush on the Flop will become a Flush or better by the River.  So 35% of the 60% of the time that your hand isn’t the best on the Flop and that your bet doesn’t work as a bluff it will become the best hand by the River.  That’s an additional 21% of the time.  So the chances that your betting action will produce a positive result for you is 61%  (40% plus 21%).

As you can see,  the value of a semi-demi-bluff is greater than either a pure bluff or even a semi-bluff.  Looked at in a slightly different way,  it just means that it might make sense to bet a hand of middling strength when that strength is added on top of both the possibility that the hand will improve and the chances that the bet will induce opponents to concede.