There are many variables that poker players must consider when they make decisions.  How strong are the cards you hold?  How likely are they to improve?  What are my opponents likely to hold?  How likely are they to improve?  What is my position relative to them?  How much more money is likely to be wagered?  Are they overplaying their hand deliberately to get me to fold?  Are they slowplaying their hand in order to seduce me to play?  What’s my image at the table?  Are they affected by it?  What’s their image at the table?  What do they think I think they’re thinking?

The questions are endless.  The answers are equally endless.

The other problem is that the answers often appear to be just a matter of opinion.  Put another way, it is easy to rationalize any action you instinctively want to make.  Here’s an example.

You have (7s Jh)Jd in early position in a $10/$20 stud poker game.  You raise the $3 bring-in to $10.  You are called by a player with a King.  On Fourth Street the King gets another King and you get an Ace.  He bets $10.  What do you do?

In the antiseptic realm we are in now, away from the play of the cards and the table, it seems obvious that the only

CLAIM YOUR FREE CHIPS

But with poker there’s always an argument that you can make for some other move.  I can hear the tortured reasoning for a raise:  "Well, since he paired his King, he was less likely to have the pair of Kings on Third Street.  Plus, if he did make trips he would be unlikely to bet it since he knows I’ll probably fold.  It’s much more likely that he made two pair or just Kings.  If I raise him he’ll think that I just made Aces up or maybe even trip Aces."

The problem for the player who is learning the game is that he is often caught up with all of the possibilities, all the variables, making it hard for him to pierce through fuzzy thinking and find the correct move.  What he needs are some simple guidelines that can steer him in the right direction.  As he progresses, he can fine-tune his decision making.  But for starters he should pick some rules of thumb to help direct his play.

Here’s a general rule to start you off if you’re a beginner, or to get you back on track if you’re an intermediate or advanced player who's lost his way.  I mention up front that there are many exceptions to this and every rule.  Smart people can always find reasons why the contrary path might be correct.  But in general, I’ve found these rules to be true.

Among relatively poor, low stakes players, you should believe that raises in the early stages of the betting action represent true strength.  You should fold if you think you have less than what their bet or raise is representing.

Let’s say, for example, you’re playing holdem and you have 66 in middle position.  A player in front of you raises.  Assume the raise represents true strength.  You have a middling hand at best.  You should respect his raise and fold.

Of course, there’s the possibility that he was bluffing.  It’s possible he had nothing.  But generally speaking, respect his raise.

That’s true in stud as well.  If you’re holding (3d 7c)7d and a player with a Qs raises in front of you on Third Street, tend to believe that his raise means he has a pair of Queens.  True, he might be bluffing.  And there are some circumstances when you will know his play so well that you’ll be almost certain that he’s bluffing -- or almost certain that everyone else will call, making a call the right play.  But as a rule of thumb, if he raises the bring-in, figure that he has the hand he is representing.

Let’s say you have a (7h Jh)Kh.  An Ace to your right raises the bring-in.  Fold.  Similarly, if the Ace is to your left and everyone folds to you, fold.

You don’t want to be in a hand heads up against a player who is raising when you have strictly a drawing hand.  The pot odds don’t justify it.  True, it may be that other players will call after you, but why take that chance?  Your hand has only a slim chance to become a straight or a flush.  You want to be nearly certain that the hand will be played multi-way.  So don’t chance it.  Fold the hand unless it is already multi-way by the time it gets to you.

This is important in limit Stud or Holdem poker.  You will be getting excellent pot odds for your call.  A mistaken call is a small error.  But a mistaken fold -- when you have the winning hand and fold rather than call -- is a catastrophic mistake.

Here’s a quick example.  It’s the River.  You’ve been betting the whole way with a pair of Jacks.  On the River, you check and your opponent who shows 7h-8h-9s-9c bets.  It’s a $10/$20 Stud game.  A few players hung around until Fifth Street.  The pot is $180 with his bet.  You have just the pair of Jacks.  You think about all the hands he might have: two pair, trips, a full house, a straight, a flush.  Surely, you think, he has you beat.

Even so, you should bet.  You’re getting $180 for your $20 call -- 9:1 odds.  Are you really THAT sure he isn’t bluffing?  He might have a busted flush or straight draw and have just the pair he’s showing.  If you fold and you had the better hand you would have made a $180 mistake.  If you call and he beats you then you’ve thrown $20 down the drain.  Risk the $20 loss and call.

Pure bluffs are rarely successful in lower and mid-stakes games.  Players tend to call.  That’s how they’re poor players -- they call too much.  You don’t want to waste money bluffing a player who is too oblivious, undisciplined or otherwise poor to fold to your raise.

Don’t get me wrong, you can still make bluffs.  But make them with hands that have some value or promise to them.  For example, if you’re in late position, you can raise the Big Blind if you have hands with some possibilities; hands like 8h-9h or As-Tc or 4h-4s.  These aren’t hands that normally stand up well on their own without improvement.  But they can improve to very strong hands with the right sort of flop.