I started the hand with 1845 chips,  the blinds were 50/100,  we weren’t close to the money yet.

I was dealt Tc Ac Ts Ks,  3rd to act before the flop  (on a 9-handed table).  The two players in front of me folded and I raised the pot,  making it 350 to go.  I like to raise when first in with a high card hand.  I don’t want weak lows to limp in and take half the pot from me.  I’m not going to get rid of the strong lows,  but a raise will increase my chances to scoop.

It’s folded around to the button,  who calls.  The button had started the hand with 4230 chips.  He was chip leader on our table.

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He raised.

I don’t have many chips left,  but I’ve got enough to post the blinds for a few more rounds,  I’m still alive if I fold,  although I’d be severely wounded.  Remember,  this is a tournament.  But I don’t want to fold the best hand here.

What hands could this guy have?

He cold called a raise before the flop.  That usually means he doesn’t have a 9 or an 8 in his hand.  Most players won’t cold call a preflop raise in O/8 with an 8 or 9.  The reason for that is that having an 8 or 9 in your hand can severely weaken your hand.

If an 8 flops,  pairing your 8,  the flop will have at least one card contributing to a low hand,  which weakens the value of a pair  --  it increases the chances of the high hand getting only half the pot.

If you have an 8-9 the only straights you can make are either the idiot end  (with a TJ on board)  or put a low draw on the board  (with a 6-7 on board).  That means with an 8-9 in your hand you have a good chance of hitting a flop where you're either drawing dead or drawing for half the pot.  There are many ways an 8 or 9 in your hand can severely weaken an O/8 hand.

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He could easily have me beat with a hand like AKKQ.  But I don’t think he’d raise with a hand like that,  being concerned I might have AAxx.  If he had AAxx he’d have probably re-raised before the flop.  Most players try to get as much money in the pot preflop as they can when they hold two Aces,  because they know they’re best and probably won’t know on the flop.

Those are all the hands that can beat me,  and it just doesn’t seem likely that he has any of those hands.  After a process of elimination I’m left with a probable bluff.  I just don’t think it’s likely at all that he would have played any of the hands that can beat me exactly like he’s played on the flop and before both.  His most likely hand seems to be some kind of low and since I did raise preflop he’s probably confident I don’t have a 9 in my hand.  He’s expecting me to fold.

So I called.  It took all my chips,  and my hand wasn’t really that strong with this board,  but it just seemed that it was very unlikely he had me beat.  My guess was that the best hand he could have was a straight draw or a flush draw.

I was right about having the best hand.  He had 8d As Kd 2c.  It turns out he did have an 8 in his hand,  which I didn’t expect.  But it was only one 8.

The turn and river came 9d 5s,  so I won the pot  (and went on to win the tournament).

When the pot is small,  it’s usually best to just give it up when you have a marginal hand.  But when the pot gets big you need to put some thought into it before you give up.  They’re more likely to be bluffing when the pot is big  (mathematically they should be bluffing more when the pot is big)  and winning big pots is important to your result.