Limit Holdem: How To Play Non-Top Pairs

Limit Holdem: How To Play Non-Top Pairs

Paul Kammen
Sun, 25 Sep 2005

Examining each circumstance that affects your play of that pair you flopped. Lesser hands require more decision-making than the premium ones.

One of the biggest dilemmas for low-stakes limit holdem poker players is what to do with a pocket pair when the flop brings a potential larger pair, or when they flop middle pair. Many times, the right move is to fold: The pot is too small, it is too likely you are behind, or you are out of position, and chasing two outs to hit a set will just cost a lot of money nine times out of 10. Unfortunately, many players just can’t get away from the urge to see the turn or even the river to hit their miracle card. There are instances when seeing the turn and even the river is a solid play -- but more often than not, the hand that looked good before the flop quickly becomes a big underdog.

So, what to do when you’ve raised pre-flop from early position with pocket 10s, the flop brings a Jack, and the player who called your raise bets after you check to her? Or when you raise from AJ on the button and the flop brings a Jack, but unfortunately a Queen as well, and a player bets into you? Many players call without hesitation. A few instantly fold. Neither move is the right decision every time, as the right play of pairs other than top pair will vary based on: 1) Whether or not you have additional outs; 2) How big the pot is; 3) Your position and 4) Your opponent’s playing style. Let’s take a look at these in detail.

Outs.

The first question you have to ask yourself when you flop a middle pair or when your pocket pair is looking at a potentially larger pair on the flop is: “Do I have additional outs?” Take the example of AT of clubs. In middle position, you limp and joining you are five other players. The flop comes 9s Th Jc. You check, a player on the button bets, and three other players call. We’ll assume it’s a $2/$4 game, and there is $20 in the pot at this stage. You put your opponent on a pair of Jacks. Any 10 will give you the best hand, trips; and if you catch two running clubs you will hit the nut flush. You can also catch two running cards to make the nut straight. The chances of catching two running cards for the flush or straight are about 23-to-1 against, or about one out. An Ace would also likely put you in front, giving you three more outs for a total of 7 outs.

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This makes you about a 2.45-to-1 underdog to win the pot, and with the amount of money in the pot calling is clearly the right play, and would be even if there were a raise making it $4 to see the turn.

That example covers a lot of information, but many players don’t think about it at all. Instead, they think: “I still have a decent pair, so need to see the turn.” The call becomes automatic and part of a routine pattern. That is a huge mistake. Obviously, it wouldn’t be if every flop with middle pair were like the above example, but when the flop has no other outs other than a long-shot draw, the situation can become quite dire for the unsuspecting calling station. Let’s take a look at another situation with AT, but this time look at a dangerous flop for you.

Returning to the example of AT of clubs, let’s suppose the flop is Ts Jh Qh. Once again, in middle position, you’ve limped and checked, and the button has bet, getting three callers. That voice inside of you whispers: “Call, and the 10 will come.” After all, it’s been a half-hour since you’ve won a pot, and you really need to get back to even to make up for the player who sucked out your pocket 10s with 4-2. Calling here is a losing play. If you consider yourself to have five outs (two 10s and three Aces), the odds against your winning the pot don’t look too bad at 3.7-to-1, but you have to stop and look at the flop and realize just how vulnerable you are. Players could be on a straight or flush draw, meaning if the Ace or 10 of hearts comes on the turn or river, you could be a big underdog against the made flush. An Ace can’t really be considered an out here either, because while it would give you top two pair any player with a King would have the straight. Release this hand, else it will just cause you pain when you miss your hand or, worse, make the second-best hand and lose a lot of money in the process.

How Big is the Pot?

Many times in poker, the decision to call or fold comes down to how big the pot is, meaning long-shot draws with a pair become playable, even when you think you are behind. This is why you can never simply look at the drawing odds alone when considering whether or not to proceed. You may be a big underdog, but because of a massive pot being built up, can make a crying call. Take the following example of suited connectors.

In the big blind, you call a raise from a player in late position with 6s 8s. The flop comes 6h 2s Jd. Six players see the flop. We’ll assume this is a $2/$4 game, meaning there is $24 in the pot. You check, the player under the gun bets, and the next four players call, bringing the pot to $34. You can assume the player next to you has a Jack, and you are clearly behind in the hand. A Jack or deuce won’t help much, so you are really down to just three outs -- one out for two running cards to give you the flush and two outs for the sixes. It costs you $2 to see the turn. With the true odds against your hitting your hand at about 6.7-to-1, you can call because of the size of the pot. If you just looked at the flop and your hand, you’d instantly think: “Runner-runner? Miracle six? No chance of that.” Indeed, it’s a very small chance -- but a chance nonetheless and worth the $2 to see the turn.

Of course, in the same situation, if there were fewer players involved and the pot were smaller, you'd need to dump the draw, because it’s not worth chasing for the pot that doesn’t give you the right odds.

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Fundamental to being a winning player is taking advantage of making a good bet, which always comes down to basic probability. A slot machine will always win for the house; the lottery will always win for the state, because the player will never have the right “pot odds” on his investment. At the poker table, you always have the advantage of knowing the odds the pot is giving you, meaning you can make a killing by playing them correctly, winning a huge pot the one in 10 times your hand hits, and staying out of a small pot by avoiding a foolish chase.

Position.

The importance of position can never be stressed enough. When you are one of the last players to act, you’ll have the advantage of knowing what other players have done. You can use that information to help you determine whether to call or fold. When you are in early position, if you make a crying call there is always the risk you may be raised, especially in the situation where a player raised before the flop in late position and a player in early position bets into him on the flop. While never forgetting true vs. pot odds, also always take into account your position, being more apt to call when you do not have to fear a raise from a player yet to act. Watching your opponents’ reactions to the flop rather than watching the flop will help you as well to give you a clue to how they may act when the betting comes to them. Those cards aren’t going anywhere, but the reaction an opponent gives to the cards as they come out lasts only a second.

You can also use position to your advantage when you think it may win you the pot right there. This is especially useful in a tight game, or when you have shown pre-flop aggression. As an example, take pocket Jacks. You raise on the button, and get three callers. The flop comes K68 rainbow. The three players check to you. Some ultra-tight players will check, fearing the King, but the check to you is an indicator that your hand is probably good; if you are check-raised you can dump the hand. A few weeks ago, just such a situation came up when I was playing $3/$6 holdem with a full kill (meaning if you won two pots in a row you had to post $6 and the limit went to $6/$12). I held pocket Queens, and a King came on the flop, seen by three players. On the button, two players checked to me; I bet, and was heads up with the player to my right. When a blank came on the turn, I bet again, she called, and I bet again on the river when no scare card came. Her call on the turn had me worried, but because she'd shown no aggression with a raise, I assumed my hand would hold up. Indeed it did, as she flipped over pocket fives. (If I did not have position in this hand, I still would have bet the flop as Queens are bigger than middle pair and the field was narrow, reducing the likelihood of the King being out there and I could have dumped the hand if raised.)

Playing Style.

In Small Stakes HoldEm by Ed Miller, David Sklansky, and Mason Malmuth, the authors point out why calls in the river are important even if you think you will lose the hand because, in part, of illogical play of your opponents. This is an excellent point. Especially at the low stakes, you see all sorts of players. Some play “by the book,” raising at the right times, making folds when they know the odds are against them, etc. Others thrive on action, and will bet with anything because they love to try to buy a pot or love to bluff. Author Roy West states: “There is no substitute for knowledge of your opponents.” It’s a good point, which is why you need to be watching your opponents for information at all times. During a recent holdem session, a $3/$6 game at Canterbury Park, the game had been going fairly tight until two new players sat down. One was in town with a rodeo passing through and instantly started calling and raising before the flop, and making raises on the turn and river with nothing -- just AK or AQ with no pair.

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He won one pot on the river, but went through $200 in about an hour. It took a little while though to determine his playing style, and I learned the hard way in what was a terrible play on my part. I had 86 of spades and was the little blind. Six players saw the flop, which brought two spades. I bet (a debatable move from early position) and it ended up being the two new players and myself on the turn. The turn brought a blank and it was checked around. The river brought another spade, giving me the flush. I bet; the other new player (also a loose player, but who had just sat down a few hands prior to this one) raised without hesitation. The cowboy to my right looked at the board, and then re-raised. It was $12 to me, and my instincts told me: “Okay, I bet on the river when the board brought the three-flush. It was raised and then re-raised. Someone has the King-high flush, and the other player has the Ace-high flush. I hate to release this, but I’m beat and will be re-raised by the other player who will surely cap it.” Well, of course you know how this story ended. The other loose player called, and the cowboy won the pot with two pair. Albeit not a massive pot -- but still a pot I should have won. I could have played it better if I had a better knowledge of my opponents’ playing style, and seeing that they were new and I had made the hand I wanted, I needed to call here and see the showdown.

As any low stakes player can attest, this kind of play isn’t all that uncommon at the lower limits. Look for plays like this. Times will come up when you may be getting slightly worse odds from the pot than what you need to justify a call, but can make the call knowing your opponent’s loose playing style.

Note the keyword though in the above sentence: slightly. Your first concern should be the odds; you cannot make poor calls simply because you know your loose opponent will pay you off if you hit your hand. A loose player can improve implied odds at times, but won’t change the number of outs that you have.

Additional Considerations. Never feel the need to protect “your money.” If you bet a pocket pair larger than middle pair after your raise on the flop and are raised with long-shot odds against you, get away from the hand because doing so will just cost you more.

Additionally, remember that this is limit and not no-limit holdem. Doyle Brunson, in the no-limit section of Super System, writes about showing aggression after the flop pretty much anytime he has done so before the flop. In a low-stakes limit game, you cannot make a big bet to try to buy the pot and put the kind of pressure on your opponents you can in a no-limit game; very often you need to slow it down when you are out of position and have no chance at the backdoor flush or straight.

And keep your cool. It can be very frustrating to fold only to watch the miracle card come on the turn or river, watching the pot be shipped to the genius who called with two outs when the pot was giving him 5-to-1 odds. Every hand is unique -- but the odds will always work themselves out, and the genius is bound to lose in the long run. Instead of getting steamed, remember the move he made so you can get him to call you when you are in front. Be patient, and the wins will come.

Playing pairs that aren’t the top pair can be very tricky, but learning to do so the right way will make a huge difference during your session.~~