Cut And Run

Ashley Adams
Thu, 2 Nov 2006

Military/naval strategy terms are common in both politics and poker. But we should try to know what they mean. Here's an example, looking at it through the game of Stud Poker.

Poker players are famous for not paying attention to the world outside of the poker room.  There’s a famous (and perhaps apocryphal) story of a poker room in Gardena, California in 1968.  It is the morning following Election Day.  Eight guys are playing draw poker, having been up all night.  It’s about 6 AM.  A new guy comes into the room. He says, “Hey, we have a new president.  That guy Nixon won.”  The other guys don’t even blink.  One guy glances up and says, “I thought he lost to Kennedy.”

Well, maybe you had to be there.  The point is that poker players are known for ignoring the world around them.  But I think we can learn a lot from our surrounding environment.  Just as there are many phrases in American speech that come from poker, so too are there expressions we can take from our headlines and apply to poker.  I’ll focus on one: “Cut and run.”

For those of you who have been living exclusively in the cave of the poker world, “cut and run” is the pejorative phrase that some of those who support the continued war in Iraq use to describe the policy of those who want us to leave.  Say what you want about our battle in Iraq, the phrase “cut and run” is a useful one for learning a winning style of poker -- especially in Seven-Card Stud.

There is a natural tendency of serious competitors to want to stay and slug it out.  You’ve surely heard the expression, “Quitters never win and winners never quit.”  It is pithy and has a certain common sense and macho appeal, doesn’t it?  It compliments our work ethic -- extolling the virtues of tenacity and effort.  I was raised with this ethic and brought it to the classroom, the ballfield, the cross-country course, and eventually the poker table.

It served me well as a kid in sports and in studies. I was neither the brightest kid nor a very good athlete, but my willingness to gut it out even when it was hard going and when I was behind earned me some respect.  But it’s a mistake in poker -- as much of a mistake as playing bad cards or being too loose, or not paying attention to other players.  Let me show you why and how.

You’re playing $5/$10 stud.  You’re dealt (6hJh)Jd.  The 2c to your right brings in the bet for $2.  You’re up against a motley crew: Some are quite tight, others fairly loose.  No one is horrible.  No one is a pro.  You see a Queen and Ace in front of you.  You’ve been rocking around for a while yourself and figure that you have a fairly tight image at the table.  You wouldn’t mind winning the antes with this barely-premium pair and weak kicker.  So you raise to $5, completing the bet.

A player with a 7, who is very loose, calls you.  The player with the Queen, the Ace, and everyone else but a 9 folds.  So you figure you’re in the lead.  There’s $21 in the pot.

You are dealt a 5h on fourth street.  The guy with a 7 gets a 2.  The 9 gets an unsuited Ace.  The Ace is high and checks.  You bet $5 with your pair of Jacks.  The 7 folds.  The Ace raises you -- for a check-raise.

What should you do?

He holds:  (X,X)9cAs

You:  (6hJd)Jh5h

He is not a tricky player, and he is check-raising you.  Normally that would mean that he had an Ace in the hole, made a pair of Aces, and is now trying to extract as much money as possible from you.  Maybe he called initially with a 3-flush headed by an Ace in the hole.  That would make sense for this type of player.  He hit the Ace on fourth but rather than bet out directly, he might decide to try and trap you for an extra bet.  So he check-raised.

Or maybe he started with a pair of 9s and an Ace kicker and the fourth-street Ace gave him Aces up.  That would also make sense.

Still, you’re getting slightly better than 7:1 on your call, you have a 3-flush going, no hearts have yet been exposed.  Even if you’re against a pair of Aces you’re only about a 3:2 underdog.  Perhaps you’re not giving your read enough credit, but you figure he might be throwing in a re-raise to knock you off your hand.  Maybe you’re being too loose, but you weigh the pot odds and you call.

The next card comes.  He hits a 9 and you hit a blank.  Your hands are

Him:  (X, X)9cAs9d

You:  (6hJd)Jh5h4c

He bets $10.  What do you do?

The competitor in you is shouting, “DON’T CUT AND RUN” and “STAY THE COURSE.”  You want to hang in there and battle it out.  Maybe you’ll get two running hearts for a flush.  Maybe you’ll hit a Jack for trips.  Maybe he only has a pair of 9s and you’re in the lead.  The pot is tempting, with $51 in it.

But look at the hand rationally.  It’s stretching it to put him on a hand where you aren’t very, very far behind and unlikely to catch up.  If he didn’t have two pair before, he surely has at least that much now.  And there’s a very strong chance that he has Aces up or trips -- putting you very far behind indeed.

In poker, there’s no shame in folding.  You need to make the best read you can, consider all of your options, and save yourself from additional losses if you can.  Quitting is exactly the right move.  Do it, even if it means you’ve “cut and run.”

By the way, the phrase “cut and run,” far from having a disreputable history associated with cowardice -- as those who use it imply -- actually has its roots in a positive military maneuver.  Here is the etymology from the site “Word Detective” (http://www.word-detective.com/)July 21, 2004 issue:

"... the roots of ‘cut and run’ actually lie in the days of sailing ships.  A ship at anchor coming under sudden attack by the enemy, rather than waste valuable time in the laborious task of hoisting its anchor, would sacrifice the anchor by cutting the cable, allowing the ship to get under sail and escape the attack quickly.  'To cut and run' was thus an accepted military tactic in emergencies, and the phrase itself dates to at least the early 1700s."

Similarly, I’d argue, the successful poker player who determines that he is far behind on a hand as it is developing must sacrifice that which he has already put in the pot, in the interest of not wasting any more valuable money on a losing proposition.  All too often, however, the highly competitive player stays anchored to the hand -- sinking with it when his miracle draw fails to rescue him.~~

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